METHODOLOGY OF ONE-TIME TARGET FORECASTING OF PROBABLE SCENARIOS OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR

Abstract

The article presents the author’s methodology for one-time target forecasting of probable scenarios of citizens’ economic behavior under conditions of threats. The distinctive feature of the proposed methodology is the use of the modeling method both at the preparatory stage and at the stage of empirical data processing. Based on the analysis of the current situation, strategies (survival- or development-oriented) and factors of citizens’ economic behavior under threat conditions were identified. The space of economic practices typical for each strategy was structured along the coordinates of “rationality/irrationality” and “subjectivity/objectivity”.The developed typology of economic behavior under threat conditions includes four types of basic models.For each model, indicators and indices were identified, forming the basis for the author’s toolkit (a questionnaire for subjective scaling). The application of the proposed sequence and clearly defined objectives of the verification methods and procedures for empirical data makes it possible to: reveal the trends in the distribution of the studied indicators already at the first stage of data processing; confirm or refute the existence of the identified trends based on the results of correlation and cluster analysis, and establish the level of reliability of the empirical research findings; confirm or refute the dependence of behavior on the concepts and practices identified at the theoretical analysis stage.An original forecasting method is proposed, based on constructing first- and second-order correlation-factor cluster models. The qualitative analysis of the first-order model made it possible to refine the developed typology. The second-order correlation-factor-cluster modeling enabled the differentiation of the typology, identifying 15 subtypes and determining the probability of subtype drift within the basic models.